MPG: Obama's lead will widen in closing days

Televisionpoint.com Correspondent | Mumbai
Obama's lead will widen in the closing days of the 2008 presidential campaign, according to advertising agency MPG's social network modeling system, Resonance, a application of SimCity-like technology.

Joe Abruzzo, research director, MPG - North America, "This is a area where traditional modeling approaches simply fail. Resonance takes into account every brand (candidate) encounter, one person at a time. Using agent-based modeling, it evaluates the complex interplay of conventions, debates, ad exposures and everyday conversations that take place about the candidates and issues to determine the most likely outcome."

Expect Obama to lead with 57% of the popular vote vs 43% McCain in the states that will determine the outcome of the November 4 election. Mass media spending has been a clear advantage for Obama. Nearly twice the spending, mostly television, with the gap expected to widen between now and election day.

The Democratic base and majority of independents are far more involved with the campaigns, with information gathering and researching the issues. These groups are more involved with most media and information sources.

The Obama campaign's facility with internet marketing has had a double whammy effect on McCain with more/better execution plus a constituency - Democrats and Independents, that is more accessible and open to internet communications.

By comparison, the middle-aged and older segment of the Republican Party is less involved with the internet. And, those Republicans that are on the internet are encountering less support for their cause.

And, while McCain is ahead on perceptions of consistency, Obama maintains a strong lead on both, trust and leadership perceptions, a result of his campaign activities including participation in the debates.

Weighing in heavily, but of little sway, is word-of-mouth. Most research touch point studies suggest the importance of word-of-mouth as a key influencer of final purchase. The volume of conversations about the presidential campaigns is enormous; however, in the majority of cases, conversations are taking place among like-minded individuals.